Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.0%
Manchester City
27.0%
Draw
22.0%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.72
Manchester City
vs
1.07
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS55.5%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.552.9%
Over 3.530.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.1%
1-0
9.0%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.6%
3-0
5.2%
2-2
5.2%
0-1
5.0%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).