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AHT: 11CSV

30 Mar 2019

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.7%
Northampton
30.0%
Draw
32.2%
Port Vale

Expected Goals (xG)

1.04

Northampton

vs
0.93

Port Vale

Markets

BTTS38.6%
Over 0.586.6%
Over 1.558.0%
Over 2.531.5%
Over 3.513.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.0%
0-1
13.5%
0-0
13.4%
1-1
13.0%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
3.3%
3-0
2.6%
3-1
2.4%
1-3
2.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).