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AHT: 11CSV

31 Aug 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.2%
Swindon
24.7%
Draw
38.1%
Notts County

Expected Goals (xG)

1.34

Swindon

vs
1.36

Notts County

Markets

BTTS54.5%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.574.7%
Over 2.550.8%
Over 3.528.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.7%
0-1
9.6%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
1-3
3.8%
3-1
3.7%
0-3
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).