Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →18.1%
Cambridge
23.8%
Draw
58.1%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.71
Cambridge
vs
1.54
Derby
Markets
BTTS38.9%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.564.7%
Over 2.538.9%
Over 3.518.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.2%
0-2
12.5%
1-1
10.6%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
8.5%
0-3
6.4%
1-3
4.5%
2-1
4.1%
2-2
3.1%
2-0
2.7%
0-4
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).