Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →14.8%
Burnley
21.2%
Draw
64.1%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04
Burnley
vs
2.28
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS59.3%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.585.6%
Over 2.564.6%
Over 3.542.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
0-2
9.4%
1-3
7.4%
0-3
7.1%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.1%
0-0
4.8%
2-1
4.5%
1-4
4.2%
0-4
4.1%
2-3
3.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).