Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.7%
Derby
29.2%
Draw
33.1%
Millwall
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Derby
vs
1.17
Millwall
Markets
BTTS50.6%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.544.2%
Over 3.523.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.1%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
4.8%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
3.0%
3-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).