Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.0%
Almeria
26.0%
Draw
25.0%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Almeria
vs
0.97
Burgos
Markets
BTTS47.9%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.544.4%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.8%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
8.5%
0-0
8.5%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.6%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).