Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.0%
Spal
29.5%
Draw
26.4%
Ternana
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Spal
vs
1.02
Ternana
Markets
BTTS49.3%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.570.6%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
11.2%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
4.7%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
4.0%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).