Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.8%
Watford
30.4%
Draw
37.8%
Millwall
Expected Goals (xG)
1.10
Watford
vs
1.22
Millwall
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.540.7%
Over 3.520.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-0
11.0%
0-1
10.9%
1-0
9.7%
1-2
8.0%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
4.4%
1-3
3.3%
0-3
3.0%
3-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).