Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.2%
Aves
27.7%
Draw
32.0%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Aves
vs
1.02
Nacional
Markets
BTTS44.0%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.564.3%
Over 2.538.1%
Over 3.518.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.6%
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
7.9%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
4.1%
3-1
3.1%
3-0
3.1%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).