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AHT: 20CSV

05 Apr 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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32.0%
Aldershot
25.5%
Draw
42.5%
Grimsby

Expected Goals (xG)

1.42

Aldershot

vs
1.67

Grimsby

Markets

BTTS62.5%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.582.3%
Over 2.559.7%
Over 3.537.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
6.3%
1-0
5.6%
0-0
5.5%
1-3
5.0%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.6%
2-3
3.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).