Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.8%
Maritimo
24.8%
Draw
24.4%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.51
Maritimo
vs
0.96
Chaves
Markets
BTTS47.5%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.544.8%
Over 3.523.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.3%
1-1
11.7%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
8.6%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).