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20 Sept 2024 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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11.6%
Standard
31.0%
Draw
57.4%
Union Berlin

Expected Goals (xG)

0.40

Standard

vs
1.24

Union Berlin

Markets

BTTS23.8%
Over 0.580.3%
Over 1.549.2%
Over 2.522.7%
Over 3.58.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
23.7%
0-0
19.7%
0-2
14.9%
1-1
10.0%
1-0
7.4%
0-3
6.2%
1-2
6.0%
1-3
2.5%
2-1
1.9%
0-4
1.9%
2-0
1.6%
2-2
1.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).