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22 Sept 2024 · 10:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.8%
Stal Mielec
25.2%
Draw
36.9%
Motor Lublin

Expected Goals (xG)

1.61

Stal Mielec

vs
1.59

Motor Lublin

Markets

BTTS64.6%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.583.8%
Over 2.562.1%
Over 3.539.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.3%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
2-0
5.3%
0-2
5.1%
0-0
5.0%
3-1
4.5%
1-3
4.4%
3-2
3.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).