Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.8%
Belenenses
33.2%
Draw
28.9%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
0.91
Belenenses
vs
0.75
Tondela
Markets
BTTS31.0%
Over 0.581.6%
Over 1.549.0%
Over 2.523.3%
Over 3.58.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
18.4%
1-0
17.8%
0-1
14.8%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
7.9%
2-1
5.9%
0-2
5.4%
1-2
4.9%
3-0
2.4%
2-2
2.2%
3-1
1.8%
0-3
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).