Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →11.3%
Tondela
21.6%
Draw
67.1%
Sp Braga
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Tondela
vs
1.98
Sp Braga
Markets
BTTS43.6%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.575.3%
Over 2.549.8%
Over 3.527.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.6%
0-1
13.0%
1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.4%
0-3
9.0%
0-0
7.7%
1-3
6.2%
0-4
4.4%
1-0
4.0%
2-1
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
1-4
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).