Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →71.5%
Mansfield
16.4%
Draw
12.1%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
2.39
Mansfield
vs
0.87
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS52.3%
Over 0.596.5%
Over 1.583.3%
Over 2.563.2%
Over 3.541.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.5%
3-0
8.8%
1-1
7.7%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
5.2%
4-1
4.5%
2-2
4.1%
0-1
3.7%
0-0
3.5%
1-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).