Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.4%
Setubal
23.8%
Draw
17.9%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Setubal
vs
0.75
Chaves
Markets
BTTS41.9%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.542.1%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.6%
2-0
12.2%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
7.6%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
4.9%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
3.5%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).