Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.5%
Ponferradina
25.2%
Draw
24.3%
Villarreal B
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Ponferradina
vs
0.99
Villarreal B
Markets
BTTS49.4%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.572.0%
Over 2.546.7%
Over 3.525.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.3%
1-1
12.0%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.9%
2-2
4.6%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).