Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →4.9%
Tondela
13.3%
Draw
81.8%
Sp Lisbon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.40
Tondela
vs
2.36
Sp Lisbon
Markets
BTTS29.3%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.575.9%
Over 2.552.0%
Over 3.529.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
17.7%
0-1
15.3%
0-3
13.9%
0-4
8.2%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.1%
1-1
5.7%
1-3
5.5%
0-5
3.9%
1-4
3.2%
1-0
2.8%
1-5
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).