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HHT: 20CSV

08 May 2023 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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66.2%
Swindon
19.1%
Draw
14.7%
Crawley Town

Expected Goals (xG)

2.08

Swindon

vs
0.85

Crawley Town

Markets

BTTS49.9%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.578.8%
Over 2.556.3%
Over 3.533.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
11.5%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.1%
3-0
8.0%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
4.9%
0-1
4.9%
2-2
4.2%
4-0
4.2%
1-2
4.0%
4-1
3.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).