Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.7%
Southampton
26.5%
Draw
17.9%
Charlton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Southampton
vs
0.83
Charlton
Markets
BTTS46.4%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.571.6%
Over 2.544.9%
Over 3.523.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
11.4%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.4%
3-0
6.2%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.2%
1-2
4.8%
2-2
3.9%
0-2
2.9%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).