Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.4%
Guimaraes
27.5%
Draw
22.2%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Guimaraes
vs
0.76
Farense
Markets
BTTS38.5%
Over 0.588.0%
Over 1.560.9%
Over 2.534.4%
Over 3.515.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.0%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
12.0%
2-0
10.8%
0-1
10.1%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
4.8%
3-0
4.8%
0-2
3.6%
3-1
3.6%
2-2
3.1%
4-0
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).