Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.9%
Plymouth
23.6%
Draw
19.5%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Plymouth
vs
0.84
Newport County
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.544.9%
Over 3.523.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.3%
2-0
11.3%
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
7.9%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
5.2%
1-2
4.8%
2-2
3.9%
0-2
2.9%
4-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).