Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.3%
St Pauli
14.6%
Draw
7.2%
Erzgebirge Aue
Expected Goals (xG)
2.75
St Pauli
vs
0.76
Erzgebirge Aue
Markets
BTTS50.7%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.587.2%
Over 2.568.2%
Over 3.546.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.2%
3-0
10.3%
2-1
8.6%
3-1
7.9%
1-0
7.6%
4-0
7.1%
1-1
6.9%
4-1
5.4%
5-0
3.9%
0-0
3.6%
2-2
3.3%
3-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).