Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.6%
Luton
29.2%
Draw
27.2%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Luton
vs
1.02
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.569.7%
Over 2.542.6%
Over 3.521.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.8%
1-0
11.6%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
4.8%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.9%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).