Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.3%
Arouca
23.4%
Draw
22.4%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.97
Arouca
vs
1.21
Estrela
Markets
BTTS61.1%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.583.3%
Over 2.561.5%
Over 3.539.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.1%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.3%
0-0
4.9%
0-1
4.3%
3-2
3.9%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).