Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.3%
Watford
26.2%
Draw
27.6%
Leicester
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65
Watford
vs
1.23
Leicester
Markets
BTTS58.2%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.555.1%
Over 3.532.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.3%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
5.2%
0-2
4.2%
3-0
4.2%
3-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).