Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.2%
Casa Pia
24.3%
Draw
51.5%
Gil Vicente
Expected Goals (xG)
0.98
Casa Pia
vs
1.57
Gil Vicente
Markets
BTTS48.9%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.546.8%
Over 3.525.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.8%
1-1
11.5%
0-2
9.6%
1-2
9.4%
1-0
8.2%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.0%
1-3
4.9%
2-2
4.6%
2-0
3.8%
2-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).