Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.2%
Luton
30.4%
Draw
39.3%
Swansea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04
Luton
vs
1.22
Swansea
Markets
BTTS46.6%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.567.0%
Over 2.539.4%
Over 3.519.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.2%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
11.4%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
8.1%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
4.2%
1-3
3.3%
0-3
3.2%
3-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).