Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →86.4%
Benfica
9.6%
Draw
4.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
3.33
Benfica
vs
0.68
Arouca
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.597.9%
Over 1.591.3%
Over 2.576.4%
Over 3.556.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
11.1%
2-0
10.0%
4-0
9.3%
3-1
7.6%
2-1
6.9%
4-1
6.3%
5-0
6.2%
1-0
5.7%
1-1
4.4%
5-1
4.2%
3-2
2.6%
2-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).