Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.6%
Spal
27.9%
Draw
24.4%
Crotone
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Spal
vs
1.04
Crotone
Markets
BTTS52.0%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.574.1%
Over 2.547.6%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
9.0%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
4.8%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).