Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.4%
Real Madrid
14.6%
Draw
7.1%
Valencia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.53
Real Madrid
vs
0.63
Valencia
Markets
BTTS43.4%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.582.5%
Over 2.561.2%
Over 3.538.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.5%
3-0
11.4%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
8.6%
3-1
7.2%
4-0
7.2%
1-1
6.9%
4-1
4.6%
0-0
4.4%
5-0
3.6%
2-2
2.7%
0-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).