Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →15.1%
Bristol Rvs
21.2%
Draw
63.8%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Bristol Rvs
vs
1.75
Derby
Markets
BTTS40.1%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.543.9%
Over 3.522.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.2%
0-2
13.4%
1-1
9.6%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
7.9%
0-3
7.8%
1-0
6.9%
1-3
5.3%
2-1
3.6%
0-4
3.4%
2-2
3.2%
1-4
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).