Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.3%
Vallecano
25.4%
Draw
13.3%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Vallecano
vs
0.55
Lugo
Markets
BTTS32.9%
Over 0.587.5%
Over 1.561.2%
Over 2.534.3%
Over 3.515.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.3%
2-0
14.6%
0-0
12.5%
1-1
10.4%
2-1
8.0%
3-0
7.4%
0-1
7.0%
3-1
4.1%
1-2
2.9%
4-0
2.8%
2-2
2.2%
0-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).