Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.7%
Villarreal
26.0%
Draw
31.3%
Ath Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Villarreal
vs
1.24
Ath Madrid
Markets
BTTS55.2%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.575.8%
Over 2.551.2%
Over 3.529.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
0-0
6.8%
2-2
5.5%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.4%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).