Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →87.1%
Chelsea
10.0%
Draw
2.9%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
3.15
Chelsea
vs
0.53
Southampton
Markets
BTTS39.9%
Over 0.596.9%
Over 1.588.8%
Over 2.571.1%
Over 3.550.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
13.2%
2-0
12.5%
4-0
10.4%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
7.0%
2-1
6.6%
5-0
6.5%
4-1
5.5%
1-1
4.8%
5-1
3.5%
0-0
3.1%
3-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).