Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.2%
Nacional
25.8%
Draw
29.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Nacional
vs
1.26
Arouca
Markets
BTTS58.4%
Over 0.593.8%
Over 1.579.1%
Over 2.555.2%
Over 3.532.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.3%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
6.3%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.0%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.0%
3-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).