Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.2%
Swindon
19.1%
Draw
14.7%
Crawley Town
Expected Goals (xG)
2.08
Swindon
vs
0.85
Crawley Town
Markets
BTTS49.9%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.578.8%
Over 2.556.3%
Over 3.533.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.5%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.1%
3-0
8.0%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
4.9%
0-1
4.9%
2-2
4.2%
4-0
4.2%
1-2
4.0%
4-1
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).