Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.2%
Derby
24.4%
Draw
17.4%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Derby
vs
0.91
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS50.9%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.551.4%
Over 3.529.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
1-0
11.0%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.4%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
5.0%
1-2
4.9%
2-2
4.4%
4-0
3.0%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).