Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.2%
Tondela
30.6%
Draw
28.1%
Pacos Ferreira
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Tondela
vs
0.81
Pacos Ferreira
Markets
BTTS35.7%
Over 0.585.2%
Over 1.555.2%
Over 2.528.8%
Over 3.512.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.9%
0-0
14.8%
0-1
13.1%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
5.4%
0-2
5.1%
3-0
3.0%
2-2
2.8%
3-1
2.5%
1-3
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).