Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.4%
Sudtirol
30.5%
Draw
21.1%
Spezia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Sudtirol
vs
0.81
Spezia
Markets
BTTS42.3%
Over 0.587.2%
Over 1.564.8%
Over 2.536.6%
Over 3.517.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
12.8%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
3.8%
0-2
3.8%
2-2
3.4%
4-0
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).