Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →7.0%
Estrela
15.7%
Draw
77.4%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.64
Estrela
vs
2.50
Benfica
Markets
BTTS44.0%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.582.6%
Over 2.560.7%
Over 3.538.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.5%
0-3
11.2%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
8.7%
1-1
7.5%
1-3
7.2%
0-4
7.0%
0-0
4.9%
1-4
4.5%
0-5
3.5%
2-2
2.8%
2-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).