Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.5%
Chelsea
17.5%
Draw
10.0%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
2.61
Chelsea
vs
0.92
Burnley
Markets
BTTS56.7%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.587.7%
Over 2.568.4%
Over 3.546.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
8.7%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
8.0%
1-0
6.7%
4-0
5.7%
4-1
5.2%
2-2
4.2%
0-0
3.9%
3-2
3.7%
1-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).