Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.2%
Hertha
27.9%
Draw
41.9%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Hertha
vs
1.43
Mainz
Markets
BTTS53.7%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
0-1
9.5%
1-2
8.9%
0-0
8.3%
1-0
7.7%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
5.2%
2-0
5.1%
1-3
4.2%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).