Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.2%
Manchester City
27.0%
Draw
13.9%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Manchester City
vs
0.51
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS29.5%
Over 0.585.3%
Over 1.556.1%
Over 2.529.5%
Over 3.512.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
21.2%
0-0
14.7%
2-0
14.5%
1-1
10.3%
0-1
8.0%
2-1
7.3%
3-0
6.7%
3-1
3.4%
1-2
2.7%
4-0
2.3%
0-2
1.9%
2-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).