Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.8%
Almeria
27.5%
Draw
32.6%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Almeria
vs
1.19
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS52.0%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.546.6%
Over 3.525.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.2%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.5%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
3.8%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).