Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →77.3%
Dortmund
14.5%
Draw
8.1%
Hertha
Expected Goals (xG)
2.79
Dortmund
vs
0.84
Hertha
Markets
BTTS54.0%
Over 0.596.9%
Over 1.588.3%
Over 2.570.4%
Over 3.549.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.3%
3-0
9.6%
2-1
8.7%
3-1
8.1%
1-0
6.9%
4-0
6.7%
1-1
6.7%
4-1
5.6%
5-0
3.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-2
3.4%
5-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).