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HHT: 10CSV

02 Mar 2019

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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35.3%
Newport County
25.1%
Draw
39.6%
Carlisle

Expected Goals (xG)

1.28

Newport County

vs
1.37

Carlisle

Markets

BTTS53.5%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.549.5%
Over 3.527.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.9%
0-1
10.1%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
3.4%
0-3
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).