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AHT: 01CSV

12 May 2019

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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76.4%
Vallecano
16.4%
Draw
7.3%
Valladolid

Expected Goals (xG)

2.28

Vallecano

vs
0.56

Valladolid

Markets

BTTS38.5%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.577.7%
Over 2.553.9%
Over 3.531.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
15.2%
1-0
13.2%
3-0
11.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-1
7.6%
4-0
6.6%
3-1
6.4%
0-0
6.0%
4-1
3.7%
0-1
3.1%
5-0
3.0%
2-2
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).